It is no secret that the wage gap between Mexico and China has been narrowing in recent years. While labour costs in China were roughly 200 per cent lower than those in Mexico a decade ago, wage inflation in China and wage stagnation in Mexico have combined to close the gap to nearly zero .
But could labour in Mexico now actually be cheaper than in China? Yes, according to Carlos Capistran, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Not only are average hourly manufacturing wages in Mexico now lower than those in China in constant dollar terms, they are 20 per cent less.
Here’s the chart from Capistran’s note to clients on Thursday:
But is this necessarily a good thing for Mexico?
True, stagnant salaries over the past decade have been credited with reviving Mexico’s manufacturing sector, which was hard hit by China’s entry on to the world stage following membership into the World Trade Organisation in 2001.
A study by Barclays last year reckoned that the rise of China as the “world’s factory floor” chipped about 60 basis points off Mexico’s gross-domestic-product growth every year between 2002 and 2006. Some of the biggest casualties in Mexico’s manufacturing sector were textiles, clothing and shoes.
And now thanks to soaring wages in China, high transportation costs and the steady recovery seen in the US economy, the tide is turning back in Mexico’s favour.
As Capistran explained:
Mexico has been able to regain participation in the US market since the Great Recession and the international financial crisis. Part of the gain has been against China: from 2007 to 2012, China gained 1pp in market share, compared to 7.5pp between 2001 and 2007, while Mexico gained 1.6pp, compared to -0.74pp between 2001 and 2007. A larger share of the US market positions Mexico better to benefit from the US recovery. In our view, an important force behind this trend is Mexico’s hourly wages are 19.6% cheaper than those of China.
Optimism over Mexico’s growth prospects has made the country a darling among international investors. Some $80bn of foreign investment were poured into the country’s stocks and bonds last year, compared with the $16.5bn received by Brazil. Mexico’s stock market hit a record high earlier this year and banks ranging from Spain’s BBVA to the US’s JP Morgan have been busy bulking up their operations there.
Yet what about the human costs of wage stagnation?
Minimum wage in Mexico today is about 60 cents an hour, while average pay in manufacturing is only about $4.50 an hour, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This compares to the $6.27 paid in Brazil. (BoA puts Mexico hourly wages even lower – at $2.50. See chart at the top of the post).
Writing in the Miami Herald last month, Andrés Oppenheimer made the observation that “Everybody is upbeat on Mexico – except Mexicans.”
During my visit [to Mexico City], I found widespread skepticism in the local media, and among Mexicans in general, about the sudden international love affair with Mexico.
“After so many years of mediocre economic growth, there is a lingering mood of frustration,” pollster Ulises Beltran, head of the BGC polling firm, told me.
In Brazil, falling unemployment and wage increases have helped millions rise out of poverty and spark a domestic spending boom.
By contrast, in Mexico, wage stagnation, under-employment and inflation have eroded the income level of some 31m Mexicans, according to Jose Luis de la Cruz, an economist and director of the Center for Research on the Economy and Business at the Mexico state campus of Monterrey Tech. And he reckoned that as many as 60m people are living below the poverty line. This in a nation of 113m.
As Luis de la Calle, a former Mexican government official who helped negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement recently told the New York Times:
We need to increase wages to become a true modern country.
For now, banks and investors are happy to just focus on Mexico’s positive macoeconomic numbers.
Capistran from BoA said he expected Mexico to keep its competitive edge as a result of its demographic boom – which will see a young, growing labour force keep a lid on wage increases – and productivity gains.
Despite the appreciation we expect, Mexico’s competitiveness will continue through almost flat ULCs in dollar terms due to the positive effects of a demographic boom and productivity gains in manufacturing and potentially, in services. This underpins the upside revision to our GDP forecast to 4% from 3.5% for 2014 and is one of the reasons we see an increasing potential growth.
So more good news for investors. But less so perhaps for the Mexican labourer who’s toiling away in a factory somewhere for 60 cents an hour.